Projecting a Niche Model

You project a niche model when you map your model onto the training region to find additional suitable habitat. You can also map your model into the past or the future or into novel environments. You are asking, where can the species persist?

Projecting to your training region is the most common and simplest form. However, you can also project into different contemporaneous geographies too, for example:

  • target sampling in undersurveyed regions for rare organisms e.g. de Siqueira et al. 2009

  • predicting the existence of sister species e.g. Owens et al. 2013

  • predicting the invasive potential of introduced species.

We can also project into the past and the future, for example: * to hindcast distributions in the case of determining paleodistributions of modern taxa for identifying refugia e.g. Peterson and Nyári, 2007 * to forecast species distributions to identify range shifts due to cliamte change e.g. Wang et al., 2016.